As Cuba’s energy grid falters and its economy buckles under the weight of a tightened United States embargo, Mexico finds itself in an increasingly awkward position. It is dispatching ships full of food and aid to its Caribbean neighbor while trying not to anger the White House, just as critical trade negotiations are set to resume.
In late February, the Mexican government sent its second major shipment of humanitarian aid to Cuba in less than a month. Navy vessels departed from the port of Veracruz carrying over 1,100 tonnes of food, including beans and milk powder. This followed an earlier delivery of more than 800 tonnes of essentials earlier in the month.
A fleet of volunteer cargo vessels is currently en route to Havana from Progreso, Yucatán, in a move that organizers are calling an emergency humanitarian mission.
For Mexico, this is framed as a continuation of its historical foreign policy. President Claudia Sheinbaum has emphasized that these actions are a matter of sovereignty and “humanitarian aid,” rather than a political slight against the United States.
The aid, however, arrives as Cuba faces what is being widely reported as a total collapse of the island nation’s energy infrastructure. On March 16, the nation’s electrical grid went dark after a complete shutdown, leaving approximately 10 million people without power. This blackout is the direct result of a severe fuel shortage.
No oil has been imported to the island since January 9. The situation has deteriorated rapidly following an executive order signed by US President Donald Trump in late January, threatening tariffs on any country supplying oil to Cuba. This move effectively blocked the primary sources of fuel that kept the island running.
The current energy situation has also cripled tourism to Cuba, which has historically been one of its main economic lifelines.
The strategic pressure from Washington has been twofold. First, the US effectively halted oil shipments from Venezuela after the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro by US forces, which cut off a third of Cuba’s supply. Second, the threat of tariffs pressured Mexico—which had become Cuba’s primary supplier, accounting for 44 percent of its foreign oil in 2025—to reconsider its energy exports. Reports emerged that Pemex, the state-owned Mexican oil company, had paused or reviewed planned crude shipments to Cuba as early as January amid fears of US retaliation. Sheinbaum confirmed that a shipment was canceled but stressed that diplomatic channels were being used to navigate the situation.
The humanitarian consequences on the island are stark. Beyond the blackouts, which have shut down water pumps, hospitals, and public transport, the lack of fuel has crippled daily life. The BBC reported that protesters in the city of Morón ransacked a Communist Party building amid soaring food prices and persistent power cuts, a rare public display of dissent. Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel stated that no fuel has entered the country in three months, leaving the economy gasping for air.
This places Mexico in a geopolitical vise. On one hand, the country has a deep-rooted history of solidarity with Cuba. The ruling Morena party publicly rejected the US measure, calling it a violation of international law and a tool of “collective punishment.” On the other hand, Mexico’s economic stability is inextricably linked to its northern neighbor. The upcoming review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is scheduled to be completed by July 1, 2026.
The timing could not be more delicate. Mexican Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard has been in talks with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer to expedite the review process, discussing everything from steel tariffs to the automotive industry. Any perception that Mexico is defying US foreign policy by supporting the Cuban regime could complicate these negotiations. US Republican lawmakers have already signaled that continued shipments to Cuba could influence the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement talks and cooperation on security issues like migration and drug trafficking.
For now, Mexico is attempting to maintain balance. While the oil shipments have reportedly slowed or paused amid the uncertainty, the government continues to send visible, symbolic humanitarian aid by sea. This allows Sheinbaum to project an image of regional solidarity without directly provoking the tariff war that Trump has threatened. As one analyst put it, the situation may force a break not just between Mexico and Cuba, but between the foreign policy instincts of the past and the economic realities of a Mexico facing a powerful, protectionist US administration.