Hurricane season is still weeks away, but the major forecasting organizations have already weighed in — and most of them are telling a similar story. For the Atlantic basin, 2026 looks to be a calmer-than-average year. Mexico’s Pacific coast, on the other hand, is shaping up to be busier.
Here’s a look at what each of the major forecasters has put out so far.
Mexico’s Weather Service: Pacific Heats Up, Atlantic Quiet
Mexico’s National Meteorological Service (SMN), part of the national water agency Conagua, released its seasonal outlook this week with numbers that stand out for one reason: the Eastern Pacific is forecast to far outpace the Atlantic.
On the Pacific side, the SMN is calling for 18 to 21 named systems in total, including nine to 10 tropical storms, five or six Category 1-2 hurricanes, and four or five major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher. That’s a notably busy outlook for the coast that runs down Mexico’s Pacific flank — Jalisco, Sinaloa, Guerrero, and the waters off the Yucatán Peninsula’s opposite shores.
For the Atlantic, the picture is far more subdued. The SMN is forecasting 11 to 15 total systems, with seven to eight tropical storms, three to five lower-category hurricanes, and just one or two major storms. For residents and visitors on the Peninsula — from Progreso to Cancún to Tulum — that means a season that looks less threatening on paper, though that’s never a guarantee.
For context, last year the Atlantic produced 13 named storms and five hurricanes, four of which reached major status, including the catastrophic Hurricane Melissa, which slammed Jamaica as a Category 5 storm before the World Meteorological Organization retired its name.
Colorado State University: El Niño in the Driver’s Seat
The first major U.S. outlook came April 9 from Colorado State University’s Department of Atmospheric Science, which has been issuing seasonal hurricane forecasts since 1984. Its team called for 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes in the Atlantic — slightly below the 30-year average of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major storms.
The main reason, according to CSU, is the anticipated development of El Niño. The Pacific is currently in weak La Niña conditions, but that pattern is expected to shift to El Niño — possibly a moderate or strong one — right at the season’s peak from August through October. El Niño increases upper-level wind shear across the Atlantic, which tears developing storms apart before they can organize.
The probability of a major hurricane tracking through the Caribbean is put at 35% this season, well below the historical average of 47%. Still, CSU’s researchers were careful to note that their April forecast is the least reliable of the updates they’ll issue, and that “it only takes one storm near you to make it an active season for you.”
AccuWeather and The Weather Company: Watching for a Super El Niño
Other forecasting groups tracked closely with CSU’s assessment. AccuWeather and The Weather Company, along with its partner Atmospheric G2, both called for a below-average Atlantic season, again pointing to El Niño as the dominant factor.
What sets the 2026 outlook apart is the possibility — estimated at roughly 15% — of a so-called Super El Niño, in which Pacific water temperatures run more than 2 degrees Celsius above normal. If that scenario develops late in the season, activity could pick up in the fall months. AccuWeather forecaster Paul Pastelok noted the transition to El Niño could arrive as early as June, unusually early for a pattern that typically kicks in during autumn.
The Bottom Line
The consensus going into 2026 points toward a below-average Atlantic hurricane season, shaped largely by El Niño’s suppressing effect on storm formation. Mexico’s Pacific coast faces a more active outlook. NOAA, the U.S. government’s main forecasting agency, is expected to release its own seasonal prediction in late May.
As with every season, forecasters are quick to remind residents that the numbers are probabilities, not promises. Preparation along the Yucatán Peninsula’s coasts remains essential regardless of where the seasonal totals land.
2026 Hurricane Season at a Glance
- Atlantic season runs June 1 – Nov. 30; Eastern Pacific opens May 15
- SMN Atlantic forecast: 11-15 named systems, 1-2 major hurricanes
- SMN Eastern Pacific forecast: 18-21 named systems, 4-5 major hurricanes
- Colorado State University Atlantic forecast: 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 major
- El Niño development — possibly a “Super El Niño” — is the key variable to watch
- Caribbean major hurricane probability: 35% (historical average: 47%)
- NOAA’s outlook expected in late May
Source: Servicio Meteorológico Nacional / Colorado State University / AccuWeather