New White House immigration and economic policies are putting serious financial pressure on Mexican migrants in the United States and the families who depend on the money they send home.
Nearly 4.5 million Mexican households receive remittances. For many, especially in rural areas and among households headed by women, these monthly transfers cover food, medicine, rent, and school supplies.
In 2025, Mexico received 61.8 billion dollars in remittances. That was a drop of nearly 3 billion dollars from the 64.7 billion sent in 2024. It marked the first annual decline in 11 years. Prior to this, remittances had increased every year since 2013. The streak was broken. Analysts at BBVA and Banorte expect the downward trend to continue through 2026 and 2027.
The reasons are multiple. One direct blow came on January 1, 2026, when a new federal tax on remittances took effect. It is a 1% excise tax on money sent abroad using cash, money orders, or cashier’s checks. The tax is part of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which President Trump signed into law in July 2025. It applies only to physical money transfers, not to digital payments from bank accounts. But this means it hits undocumented migrants the hardest.
Migrants rely largely on wire services and money orders. The remittance sender in the United States pays the tax in addition to regular fees. BBVA estimates that Mexican migrants could pay up to US$3 billion in this tax alone between 2026 and 2034.
The tax is only one part of the problem. Immigration enforcement has ramped up sharply. In the first year of Trump’s second term, more than 390,000 people were deported. Other estimates place the figure at 320,000 or 146,000, depending on the dataset, but all indicate a significant increase. In November 2025, the number of remittance transfers was 7.9% lower than in the same month the previous year. It was even lower than in November 2023.
Those who remain in the United States face a cooler labor market. Unemployment rose to 4.4% at the end of 2025, one of the highest levels since 2021. Job cuts announced in January 2026 were the highest monthly total since 2009. Sectors that employ large numbers of Mexican migrants, such as construction, hospitality, and agriculture, have slowed their growth. Some migrants have lost hours or wages. Advocates and economists argue that the climate of fear has discouraged some from sending money home as they once did.
While deportations have increased, the government has also expanded guest worker programs. The H2A agricultural visa program and the H2B seasonal visa program are both growing. The H-2A program has no cap and admits nearly 400,000 workers annually. The Trump administration lowered the minimum wage that farmers must pay these workers. The United Farm Workers union is suing to stop the wage cut. At the same time, the H2B program is being doubled, adding 65,000 additional visas in 2026. These guest workers are tied to a single employer and cannot easily change jobs or organize for better pay.
Meanwhile, the purchasing power of every dollar sent is declining. The Mexican peso has strengthened against the US dollar. In early 2025, one dollar bought about 20 pesos. By early 2026, it bought about 17.30 pesos. This 10-12% appreciation means that families in Mexico receive fewer pesos per dollar sent. Inflation in Mexico adds another layer of discomfort.
Together, these factors have reduced the purchasing power of remittances by roughly 16%. The Center for Latin American Monetary Studies calculates that 500 dollars sent in October 2025 bought only what 355 dollars bought in December 2020. To match the 2020 standard, a family would need to receive 702 dollars today.